Orcadian Column, 9 September 2024

I first saw Oasis in Lille, France in 1994 a couple of months after the release of their debut album, Definitely Maybe and was fortunate enough to repeat the trick a year later when the band performed at the small but hugely atmospheric Botanique venue in Brussels. Sadly, I have failed to lay hands on Oasis tickets this time round, although this is no great surprise as I don’t have the patience needed to wait hours online on the off-chance of striking lucky.

Trying not to let my disappointment show, I joined MSP colleagues gathering in Edinburgh this week as the Scottish Parliament returned after the summer recess. And there has been much to concentrate minds.

Normally, the First Minister outlining a Programme for Government would be the marquee event of the first week back and it will certainly be interesting to see how John Swinney plans to ‘re-set’ his beleaguered administration following a disastrous election for the SNP back in July. However, it is the statement from his Finance Secretary, Shona Robison grabbing all the headlines.

Such is the parlous state of the nation’s finances that Ms Robison has signalled the need for ‘profound restraint’ and introduced ‘emergency controls’ on spending. Already this has seen the roll out of free iPads and laptops scrapped, peak rail fares reintroduced and funding for flood prevention diverted. More significant pain is yet to come, however, with the Finance Secretary required to cut around £600m from spending this year even before she turns her attention to next year’s budget. Getting that budget agreed by parliament also looks precarious, given the scale of the cuts expected and the collapse of the coalition agreement with the Greens.

The SNP has been quick to blame Westminster for its financial difficulties and in relation to cuts to Winter Fuel Payments this is not without some justification. Triggered by the mess left by the previous UK Tory Government, the planned fuel payment cut is nevertheless blunt, ill thought out and will disproportionately impact island communities. I’m pleased, therefore, to see Alistair Carmichael and the Liberal Democrats taking a lead in opposing the measure, which would affect almost 9,000 pensioners in Orkney and Shetland.

It is also clear, however, that the SNP bears responsibility for much of its own financial predicament. The Scottish Fiscal Commission reported last week that public sector pay deals higher than the rest of the UK, a Council Tax freeze and social security reforms have all contributed significantly to budgetary pressures. The independent Fraser of Allender Institute also criticised “a lack of prudence” in passing budgets without a set pay policy, leaving the Scottish Government open to the vagaries of the labour market.

Politics, of course, is about choices but the SNP cannot simply claim credit for popular spending decisions while seeking to ‘outsource’ blame for the consequential pressures and cuts elsewhere. Of course, the incompetence that has seen hundreds of millions squandered on two unfinished ferries hardly helps.

Two examples of those consequential cuts are worth considering. A year ago, former First Minister, Humza Yousaf told his party conference that Scotland’s culture sector would receive a massive increase in support. The same speech revealed a surprise and unfunded Council Tax freeze. Twelve months on and Creative Scotland’s Open Fund has been closed, prompting alarm across a sector now fearful for its future. Given the important role played by arts and culture here in Orkney, the implications of this cut locally appear potentially serious indeed.

Redirection of government funding away from marketing in local media is also a cause for concern. This route has proved highly successful during past campaigns to raise public awareness about vaccination and other health promotion measures. There is a real risk, therefore, that the effectiveness of future campaigns could suffer over and above the obvious threat to the viability of local papers, such as the Orcadian.

Come the next Holyrood election in 2026, John Swinney will be desperately hoping voters Don’t Look Back in Anger at the Digsy’s Dinner his party has made of the country’s finances. If they do, the SNP’s electoral prospects seem likely to continue to Slide Away. I’ll get my coat……