Orcadian Column, 7 November 2024

In the immortal words of Sir Alex Ferguson, it’s ‘squeaky bum time’. As I sit here writing this column, US voters are heading to the polls in what looks set to be a ‘knife edge’ contest. Anyone who says they know what will happen is either kidding you, kidding themselves or possibly both.

Whatever the failings of the Biden Presidency; whatever the shortcomings of Kamala Harris as a candidate; it scarcely seems credible that Donald Trump is within a few thousand votes in a handful of ‘swing’ states from making a return to the White House.  It speaks volumes for the deep-seated, irreconcilable divisions within US society right now that this historic contest has come down to the wire.

Even were Kamala Harris to win, there is enough evidence from his previous actions and current rhetoric to suggest Donald Trump is no more likely to accept the result this time than he was in 2020. For this and so many other reasons, it feels like a potentially dangerous inflexion point for democracy in the US, which would have consequences around the globe.

By comparison with what is happening ‘across the pond’, the battles and divisions characterising UK politics at present seem a pale imitation. Even so, since the General Election back in July, Sir Keir Starmer’s government has wasted no opportunity to remind the public of the mess left behind after 14 years of Conservative rule, notably under Liz Truss and Boris Johnson.

Plugging the ‘black hole’ in our country’s finances has become a mantra, but last week came the point where Sir Keir and his Chancellor, Rachel Reeves needed to set out how they will address the yawning fiscal gap, stabilise the country’s finances and secure future investment and growth.

As with most budgets, there was a mix of good and bad but also a need to take time to consider the detail before casting judgment. For example, the headline funding for the NHS is undoubtedly welcome, yet the hike in Employer’s National Insurance contributions threatens to play havoc with the viability of many hospices, care homes and even GP practices. As the finer details have been pored over in recent days, the warnings have become ever more dire.

Much the same could be said of the planned changes to inheritance tax. To be fair, this was always earmarked as a focus for reform under an incoming Labour administration. Farmers, however, had taken comfort from the Agriculture Secretary’s reassurances prior to the election that the sector would be exempt from any changes in recognition of the unique way in which family farms operate.

While debate continues to rage over precisely how many family farms will be affected, a promise has clearly been broken and a sector that depends on stability and long-term planning feels justifiably let down.  To add insult to injury, the UK Government has also removed the ring fence on devolved farm funding, introduced under the Bew Review. It’s hard to imagine any devolved government diverting these funds into other areas, but the signal is not a helpful one.

An altogether more helpful signal was the one I received from Scotland’s Health Secretary, Neil Gray during General Questions last week. It came in response to concerns I raised about ambulance call out arrangements in the islands, following numerous examples over the past year of what appear to have been unnecessary delays in ‘tasking’ ambulances to attend incidents on the Orkney mainland and linked isles.

This has been the subject of ongoing discussions with Michael Dickson, Chief Executive of the Scottish Ambulance Service, and I will be visiting SAS’ call handling facilities in South Queensferry later this week ahead of a further meeting with Mr Dickson. I firmly believe a way needs to be found to avoid island calls being drawn into a national ‘triage’ system that is already under huge pressure. How this is achieved has still to be worked out, but as an islander himself, the Health Secretary readily acknowledged in the Chamber the case for a more tailored approach. I look forward to meeting him shortly to discuss the issue in more detail.

Meantime, let’s hope the rule of law stateside doesn’t need put on life support.