Orcadian Column, 27 February 2025

This week marks the third anniversary of Vladimir Putin’s brutal and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. The quick victory expected by Putin was denied by stoic Ukrainian resistance, but the subsequent three years have seen casualties on both sides climb steadily as the attrition of entrenched positions has taken its toll.

Seldom are wars settled on the battlefield and diplomatic efforts were always going to be the surest route to a resolution. Even so, what happens militarily shapes the parameters of those negotiations and where advantage lies.

With Donald Trump’s arrival in the White House, however, the dynamics of this war and any negotiations have been upended, along with strategic alliances, international law and even the concept of truth. For a President whose approach to politics has always been transactional, and who makes no secret of his admiration of ‘strongman’ dictators, recent developments have been shocking but scarcely a surprise. Given his own stated colonial aspirations towards Greenland, Panama and even Canada, President Trump might argue he is simply being consistent in wishing to reward Putin’s aggression and accepting his territorial claim to large swathes of Ukraine’s sovereign territory.

Yet the notion of ‘peace’ talks taking place without the direct involvement of Ukraine is preposterous. Unfortunately, though, the concessions already made by Trump to Putin are now baked in. Any doubt about this fact surely evaporated once the US President started using his Russian counterpart’s ‘talking points’ to rewrite history, discredit President Zelensky and further demean the office he holds once more.

Surely not even Trump believes his ludicrous assertions that Ukraine started this war and its President is a ‘dictator’, but it does suggest Ukraine’s leader is paying a heavy price for refusing Trump’s demand that he open an investigation into President Biden’s business dealings in the run up to the 2020 US presidential elections. His grasp of right and wrong may be shaky, but Donald Trump has an iron grip when it comes to holding a grudge.

There also can be no doubt that a ‘bad peace’ only increases the likelihood of this war re-starting again in future, and of conflict spreading to other areas in the region and beyond. Putin’s territorial desires are certainly not limited to Ukraine.

Clear too is the fact that Europe can no longer rely on the US as it has over the past 80 years and must become more self-reliant. This will require the UK and its European partners to spend more on defence but, as crucially, to co-operate and collaborate more closely.

There was always a risk that over time political and public opinion across Europe and internationally would weary of providing the support needed by the people of Ukraine. Yet if Putin is rewarded rather than repelled, the consequences for our continent are as chilling as they were when Russian troops marched into Ukraine on 24 February 2022. Donald Trump has made clear his disinterest in anything he believes is not in his own interest, so the UK and our European partners must now finally heed that warning and step up to the mark.

Having found no way of elegantly shifting from the war in Ukraine to my colleague, Beatrice Wishart’s announcement she will be stepping down as an MSP at the next election, I am forced to embrace the clunkiest of segues. However, I do want to pay tribute to someone who has made her mark in the Scottish Parliament since winning the Shetland byelection for the Scottish Liberal Democrats in 2019.

Beatrice is different in character and temperament to her predecessor, Tavish Scott, but over the last six years has shown herself to be a tenacious and effective advocate on behalf of her constituents and community. She is a good friend with whom I have enjoyed working closely over the years, but she is also liked and respected by colleagues across the parties and her presence will be missed at Holyrood.

I entirely understand her desire, at this stage, to spend more time with her family, but I have no doubt that Beatrice will remain actively involved speaking up for her island community and championing the causes about which she cares so passionately. Long may she do so!